Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
